Is the Simcoe County market starting to favour buyers, or are sellers still holding their ground? September’s numbers do not give us one simple answer.
Compared with September 2025, there were fewer active listings in four of the five local markets we track. Sales increased in Springwater, remained unchanged in Essa, and declined in Barrie, Innisfil, and Oro-Medonte. Average sale prices were also lower in four markets, with Barrie as the only community to record a year-over-year increase.
For buyers and sellers, the main takeaway is that this remains a very local market. Conditions can look quite different from one community to the next, and inventory alone does not tell the whole story. Price, presentation, property type, and recent comparable sales all matter when deciding how to move forward this October.
Information provided by Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. September 2026 compared with September 2025. Figures shown reflect detached-home activity. Average sale price can vary based on the size, location, condition, features, and price range of homes sold during the reporting period.
What stands out in September’s market numbers?
September delivered a mixed set of results across the region. Barrie had fewer active listings and fewer sales than one year earlier, but its average sale price increased by 2.2%. Springwater also had fewer listings, while sales increased by 28.0% and the average price declined by 16.1%.
Essa was the only market with more active inventory than last September. Its sales count was unchanged, while its average sale price was lower. Innisfil and Oro-Medonte both recorded declines in inventory, sales, and average price.
The numbers reinforce why it is important to look beyond a regional headline. Each community is moving at its own pace, and the mix of homes sold can have a noticeable effect on monthly averages.
Are buyers still active across the region?
Yes, but activity varied considerably by location. Springwater recorded 32 sales, up from 25 last September, while Essa held steady at 18 sales. Barrie, Innisfil, and Oro-Medonte all had fewer completed transactions than they did one year ago.
That does not mean buyers have stepped away from the market. It does mean that sellers need to understand what buyers are comparing their home against. A property that is well prepared, realistically priced, and clearly positioned can still stand out, even when overall activity is uneven.
Does lower inventory give sellers an advantage?
Not automatically. Active inventory was lower in Barrie, Innisfil, Oro-Medonte, and Springwater, which means buyers had fewer available listings to choose from than they did last September. Essa moved in the opposite direction, with active inventory rising by 17.8%.
Fewer competing listings can help a well-positioned property attract attention, but lower inventory did not lead to higher average prices in most of these markets. Sellers still need to price according to current conditions and recent comparable sales rather than assuming that limited selection will support a higher asking price.
Are home prices rising or falling?
Barrie was the only market in this comparison where the average sale price increased year-over-year, rising 2.2% to $789,940. Average prices declined by 4.2% in Innisfil, 14.1% in Oro-Medonte, 16.1% in Springwater, and 27.8% in Essa.
Those changes should be read carefully. Average sale price is influenced by the types of homes that happened to sell during the month. This can create larger percentage swings in communities with fewer monthly transactions, especially when the mix includes homes from very different price ranges.
A year-over-year change in the monthly average does not mean that every property gained or lost the same amount. A current market evaluation should look at recent sales involving homes that are genuinely comparable in location, size, condition, and features.
What does this mean if you are buying or selling in October?
For sellers, the September numbers make preparation especially important. Lower inventory may reduce the number of competing listings in some communities, but buyers still have clear price expectations. Thoughtful preparation, strong photography, and a realistic launch price can make a meaningful difference.
For buyers, softer average prices in four of the five markets may create opportunities, but the right approach will depend on the specific property and neighbourhood. With fewer listings available in most communities, it helps to have financing arranged, know your priorities, and be ready when a suitable home appears.
Bottom Line
September’s numbers point to an uneven market rather than a clear advantage for either buyers or sellers. Inventory was lower in most communities, sales results were mixed, and average prices moved in different directions depending on location.
That is why local context matters. Barrie, Essa, Innisfil, Oro-Medonte, and Springwater each have their own market conditions, and broad regional trends cannot replace a closer look at the neighbourhood, property type, price range, and recent comparable sales.
For a closer look at a specific community, explore our September market updates for Barrie, Essa, Innisfil, Oro-Medonte, and Springwater.
Thinking about buying or selling in Barrie, Essa, Innisfil, Oro-Medonte, Springwater, or the surrounding Simcoe County area this October?
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